Monday, September 9, 2013

Petition to the White House - "Conduct A Robust Peacemaking Strategy in Syria"

We believe the best outcome in Syria is a peace through a political settlement between the warring parties. To force such settlement, we petition that the U.S. government conduct a Robust Peacemaking Strategy using its military and political resources.

The Robust Peacemaking Strategy is based on the following points:
  1.  The warring parties will not settle if they still think they can win on the battlefields.
  2.  Nor will they settle if they fear of losing a civil war that veers towards sectarianism.
  3.  The current territory under control by the government forces, the moderate rebel forces, and the Islamist groups more or less represents stalemate.
  4. The "Peacemaking" part of the Strategy dictates that this stalemate be maintained. Without hope of winning nor fear of losing, the parties will cease to see war as the solution. When war becomes pointless, what is left is a political settlement.
  5. The "Robust" part of the Strategy is to use the U.S. military might and political resources to enforce  the stalemate in the battlefields and give Peacemaking the opportunity to be realized
To enforce stalemate, we recommend:
  1. The U.S. shall use its military and political resources to level out any advantage one warring group has over the other
  2.  For the government forces, one of its advantages is the air force. The U.S. shall implement a you-use-it-you-lose-it no-fly policy. The government force is allowed to keep its air force but not to use it. Upon detection of a Syrian air attack, the U.S. will destroy the related Syrian air force infrastructure.
  3.  For the moderate rebel forces, the U.S. shall send unlimited small arms for the fighters, and limited anti-tank weaponry to counter the government forces' advantage in armor.
  4.  The U.S. shall actively monitor the battlefields using its satellites and drone resources. The U.S. shall make clear to all warring parties about the consequence of shooting at its drones: the U.S will destroy the shooting party's anti-aircraft and heavy weaponry. 
  5.  The U.S. shall display the satellite/drone monitoring and subsequent analysis information on the Internet, as close in real time as possible. If the attacker knows that its enemy may know its plan, it will think twice about attacking. This transparency will not prevent small-scale skirmishes, but can deter any large-scale attack that can destabilize the stalemate.
  6.  The U.S. shall implement Internet over the battlefields, and allows all warring parties to access the above information.
  7.  The U.S. shall send chemical-detection monitoring devices to the battlefields. These devices can report back their findings using the battlefield Internet above. The moderate rebel forces are required to set up these devices as part of their arm shipment.
  8.  Any party that uses chemical weapons shall have its artillery and other chemical-weapon-delivery resources targeted by the U.S. military.
  9.  The U.S. shall use covert actions to limit the Islamist groups. It should be conceivable to have the government forces and the moderate rebel forces in a covert coalition against the Islamist groups, through U.S. facilitation.
  10.  The U.S. shall work with the Arabic states and the European Union to maintain the moderate rebel forces so that they can neither win nor lose.
  11.  The U.S. shall work with Russia to maintain the government forces, so that they can neither win nor lose.
  12.  The U.S. shall approach Iran and Hezbollah to offer the Islamist groups a say in the eventual power-sharing government.
In conclusion, we believe that the Syrian conflict should not be resolved with a winner and other losers, since such resolution is unpredictable and can be detrimental to the U.S. interests; that the resolution of the conflict should come from a political settlement between the warring parties; that to force such settlement, there must be a stalemate in the battlefields; that only the U.S. can lead a world-wide coalition to enforce such a stalemate; that to lead such coalition, the Obama administration has to drop its "leading from behind" policy and conduct the Robust Peacemaking Strategy using all the military might and political influence of the sole world power.